What to Expect When You're Expecting Fascism
The second Trump administration is likely to begin with a series of shock events designed to overwhelm our capacity for sense-making.
As we slide into the reality of a second Trump presidency, it's easy to become overwhelmed about what it will actually mean and importantly, how it will make us feel. Our collective and individual capacity for sense-making is likely to be outstripped and replaced with feelings of depression and despondency — or even tuning out completely. But knowledge is power, and with a little bit of preparation, we can get ahead of the worst effects of what will be a very trying period. Here's some of what we see on the horizon.
Emergency Declaration and Insurrection Act
Donald Trump has stated that he will declare a national emergency on his first day in office. Most recently he has said he may declare an 'economic emergency' in order to drive through his plans for imposing tariffs on various trading partners ranging from Canada, Mexico, China, and possibly Denmark, as part of Trump's recently revived intention to annex Greenland.
According to Elizabeth Goitein at the Brennan Center for Justice, there are over 150 different emergency powers granted to the President under the National Emergencies Act. At this time, it is unclear which of those powers he may choose to invoke, but none of those powers would explicitly facilitate the mass deportations that the administration has insisted it will perform. He may, however, pursue his policies anyway, claiming that the powers give him statutory authority, creating a situation that would likely be resolved years later in court.
C-SPANIn the event of any civil unrest resulting from protests of his presidency, he may invoke the Insurrection Act, giving him the authority to deploy federal troops, including the National Guard, to enforce domestic laws. He may also deploy troops to cities he considers crime-ridden or otherwise perceived to be in a state of crisis. Los Angeles, which is still dealing with devastating fires and the total loss of much of the northwestern side of the metro area, will provide a tempting pretext for invoking the Insurrection Act, and starting his presidency with "shock and awe."
Presidential Emergency Action Documents (PEADs)
Trump will also have access to another mechanism: Presidential Emergency Action Documents (or PEADs) that give the President a range of capabilities. The catch? We don't know what they are. Their contents are secret, and for good reason: we don't want to give away our emergency plans to our adversaries. But in this case, where we have a President who may be inclined to abuse emergency authorities, they pose a serious danger.
Experts familiar with the thinking behind the PEADs believe that they may authorize actions such as the suspension of habeas corpus, the detention of US citizens deemed as "subversive" or an "enemy of the state," the ability to conduct warrantless searches, the imposition of martial law, or restrictions on the use of US passports. Taken together, these amount to the near total suspension of the rule of law.
While any illegal use of the PEADs would likely be litigated in court, the very existence of the PEADs may give President Trump the impression that he has powers that he doesn't actually have, or may offer a pretense for taking immediate actions that he knows will ultimately be brought before a sympathetic Supreme Court. Keep a sharp eye on whether and how PEADs are referenced as the Trump regime kicks off.
Executive Orders and DOGE
Early reports suggest that Trump is likely to issue at least 100 new executive orders immediately upon taking office. There may be hundreds more beyond that, all geared towards supporting the goals of Project 2025 and other aligned efforts.
Russell Vought, a key architect of that plan and Trump's pick to lead the Office of Management and Budget, has said that he will advise the use of the military to suppress domestic unrest and will enact cuts that "traumatize" federal employees — effectively making conditions so unbearable that those who aren't fired will be strongly incentivized to resign.
Nick Surgey
Vought's thinking is also the basis for the DOGE, or Department of Government Efficiency, spearheaded by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, with assistance from Marjorie Taylor Greene, Ron Paul, venture capitalist Mark Andreessen, and others. While Musk initially said he would cut as much as $2 trillion in spending, that figure exceeds the entire $1.7 trillion discretionary budget. He recently walked back that initial estimate, saying instead he hoped to achieve cuts of approximately half that.
Debt Ceiling Showdown
In June 2023, Congress suspended the debt ceiling until January 2, 2025. Thanks to some maturing securities, Janet Yellen has estimated that we will need to enact "extraordinary measures" on approximately January 14 in order to avoid a catastrophic debt default. We covered this situation extensively here, and it hasn't changed. If the debt ceiling is not resolved before the "X-Date" (the date when we can no longer pay our bills, estimated to be in a few months), then we will default. Putin, Xi, Musk, and various domestic actors see US debt default as desirable and unavoidable, even as it would have disastrous effects for the United States. We will need to see how this plays out, but if it is not properly managed we will have a major crisis on our hands, with Putin and Xi as the primary beneficiaries.
Dave Troy
Cognitive Overload
Many have processed Trump's bluster over annexation of Canada, Greenland, and Panama as a circus sideshow and an intentional "distraction" from other matters — especially his court cases, sentencing, and controversial cabinet picks. This is a mistake, for Trump's provocations are not distractions at all, but rather deliberate statements designed to promote downstream effects, destabilize borders and conventional wisdom, and put government officials and media on their back feet.
Various geopolitical doctrines are currently in play, from Project Russia, to Aleksandr Dugin's Eurasianism, to Musk's grandfather's technocracy. All involve unlocking existing borders and creating a "multipolar world." Even if the specifics of Trump's stated intentions don't play out exactly as described, he is still generating downstream effects that may advance his agenda. In business, this strategy is called "effectuation," and the public should learn about it as a more useful metaphor than the tired and overused "Wag the Dog" distraction theory.
This is especially important when provocations accelerate and become more tightly spaced. When we are dealing with 100 simultaneous executive orders, mass deportations, martial law, urban unrest, and foreign conflicts, there will be absolutely no way to assess what is the main event and what is the "distraction." It's all real, it all consumes sense-making capacity, and it will all need our attention.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, historian and author of the book Strongmen: Mussolini To The Present, says that autocrats use "shock events" to "jump-start their capture of institutions and disorient people." Indeed, this is what to expect, rather than the slow roll out of issues one after the next in a stream digestible by Sunday talk shows, where hosts and guests can spar about which issue is the "real" one and which one is the "distraction." Instead, engagement will require ingesting from several firehoses simultaneously, all of equal importance.
How To Prepare
This is a daunting future and it will be challenging for all of us — even many Trump voters, who will be getting a taste of what they actually voted for, versus what they thought they voted for. For many, these assaults will prove too daunting to handle. And rightly so. Pace yourself, and decide how much exposure you can take. This list of suggestions (What To Do When There Is Nothing To Be Done) may prove helpful. Limiting or eliminating television news may be the most sanity-preserving thing you can do.
Dave Troy
There is also a potential for ongoing financial shocks, especially associated with budget cuts, mass deportations, tariffs, government firings, and US debt default. This list of financial considerations may be useful; consult your financial advisor as you consider risk in the year ahead.
Ultimately we are going to learn whether the Trump regime's appetite for actual chaos is as great as he and Elon Musk have suggested, or whether moderating forces will prevail. Based on what we can see right now, it's wise to brace for impact — but we'll know much more in 30 days. Stay safe, and take care of each other.
