The Substack Dilemma: How Creators Are Inadvertently Fueling America's Failure
Creators have flocked to Substack because of its ease of use — but that simplicity comes at a steep price.
The last few years have seen an explosion in content on Substack, a simple newsletter delivery and content creation platform. Founded by Chris Best, Hamish McKenzie, and Jairaj Sethi in 2017, it was designed to give writers an easy way to publish and monetize their work — which at the time required setting up complicated blog sites and finicky paywall solutions. Substack provided a ‘one size fits all’ solution that abstracted details like payments and subscriptions so that writers could focus on what they do best: writing.
That ease of use comes at a price, specifically 10% of earnings. That may not seem like too much when a site is pulling in $1,000 each month. But some creators are earning hundreds of thousands of dollars each month, or more. In 2023, Press Gazette estimated that Heather Cox Richardson's Letters from an American newsletter was earning as much as $5 million per year — netting Substack a cool half million (10%). And those numbers are likely to be even bigger now.
Substack came under substantial pressure in 2023 for hosting paid newsletters that promoted Nazi ideology and symbols. The company dithered in response to complaints, fueling questions about its values. And in 2019, the company received a major investment geared at attracting journalists with audiences from venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz — whose head Marc Andreessen is a major Musk ally, recruiting staff for his DOGE efforts.
Substack's Role in the Network State
The company is also a major tentpole in a parallel establishment envisioned by Andressen and other promoters of the Network State movement, which specifically aims to dismantle the United States and replace it with a federation of smaller, competing fiefdoms. At the inaugural Network State conference in Amsterdam, in October 2023, the movement's leader Balaji Srinavasan said (with edits for clarity):
I'm gonna introduce a new concept today, which is the parallel establishment. Each of them replacing a different legacy institution. So for example, at the top there's San Francisco and we're replacing San Francisco with things outside it like Cul-de-Sac in Arizona and Prospera in South America and Cabin, which is in Texas, but also around the world.
We're gonna take out Harvard, and we have parallel education that's Replit, that Synthesis, which is K through 12, but it's also AI tutoring, the Thiel Fellowship, Emergent Ventures.
We replace media with parallel media. It's Twitter and X, it's Substack. This concept of the parallel establishment, if you take up all of these new institutional replacements on the right hand side together, that's a parallel establishment.
They exist alongside, the legacy and parallel. They're gaining strength. They're pulling away users until they become the new thing. So this is how we turn that seemingly impossible thing of building a new country, break into a bunch of individual startups and then aggregate them together.
Srinavasan's statement makes clear that Substack is seen as part of a networked effort to replace, rather than augment, legacy media. And it is precisely Substack's strong network effects which are fueling its growth. Substack simplifies the relationship between publisher and reader while also making it easy for creators to amplify and reference other creators on Substack, while simultaneously imposing friction for sources on the open web. Substack's goal is to win. (Readers may be aware of Peter Thiel's book Zero to One, co-authored with Blake Masters, which discusses the power of network effects to achieve effective monopoly control.)
Chris Best
Bari Weiss, a writer who has become well-known for her controversial and argumentative stances, launched her publication, The Free Press, on Substack; The Financial Times has estimated that it alone has a valuation of approximately $100 million. Substack itself reported a valuation of approximately $650 million in 2021, a number which is likely much higher now. Weiss reportedly raised money from both Marc Andreessen and current White House crypto czar David Sacks.
Weiss has patterned herself in the mold of mentor David Horowitz, the radical conservative agitator famous for “switching sides” from left to right. He's also the father of Ben Horowitz (partner at the eponymous Andreessen Horowitz), and was a mentor to odious White House presence, Stephen Miller. The elder Horowitz also helped launch the career of MAGA-aligned Gish-galloper Ben Shapiro.
Trouble Ahead
We've seen this movie before. Think back to 2015 and prior, when Facebook was a major organ for political organizing, trying to appear neutral. Or about Black Twitter, where many African Americans first found each other online at scale. The fetishes of antisocial billionaires have gradually rendered these spaces largely unusable, or worse. And people have migrated elsewhere — often to smaller and less effective spaces — also at risk of future capture.
Substack presents a particular challenge, however, because of the amounts of money involved. Many creators have built significant followings on the platform — enough in many cases to make it their full time job and earn a decent living. Some, like Heather Cox Richardson, are generating significant wealth. The dependency on Substack makes leaving all the more difficult, and harder as time goes on. One could argue this is by design.
While creators can download their mailing lists and set up shop on other platforms (such as the open source Ghost platform, used by America 2.0), transferring an existing revenue stream from Substack is very difficult.
In the United States, dependency on Substack also poses a significant strategic risk heading into the 2026 and 2028 elections. While there is no indication that the company is putting its thumb on the scales to promote content based on its ideological bent, we must consider that possibility.
Substack's continued proliferation is also likely to lead to a kind of Substack fatigue, with dozens of newsletters competing for reader attention each day, many lacking even rudimentary editing and often running to 2,500 or 4,000 words. This continuously increasing cognitive load isn't sustainable and is likely to lead to burn out, both for readers and creators. It is also unwise to be so dependent on a single platform heading into elections — especially when it is part of an explicit design to dismantle the United States.
Advice for Readers and Creators
Pro-democracy creators currently publishing on Substack should be cognizant of the fact that they are operating behind enemy lines, and that the company's backers are antagonistic to your goals. Be sure to export your subscription lists early and often, as there is no way to know when this feature may be removed or curtailed. Assume the worst.
Readers engaged with creators on Substack should be prepared to migrate to other platforms on a moment's notice — and be generous with your support, especially during any transition. Exit is costly and difficult, and your relationship with creators you care about is paramount. You may also wish to send this article (and others linked below) to creators whose work you value; they may not be aware of the dilemma yet — though many are, and don't know what to do about it.
People looking to launch new content sites now should avoid Substack entirely because of the substantial risk of capture. Ghost, especially when self-hosted, is a much more open (and less expensive) option. Wordpress is also a very workable alternative, but has recently been mired in its own controversy over aspects of its governance.
Those who value democracy should steer towards adoption of designs built on the open web and internet. Walled gardens with impressive network effects can lead to short term gains, but they almost always come at the expense of long term sustainability, openness, and freedom. ■
Are you a creator interested in leaving Substack, but don't know how? Drop us a note. We would be happy to help you exit.
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