Tariffs Expose Rifts in Fragile MAGA Coalition
Republicans don't agree about tariffs, and we're beginning to see visible discord that can be used to break apart the fragile MAGA coalition.
As the world continues to digest Donald Trump's haphazard announcement of wide-ranging tariffs that threaten to upend the global economy, reshape capital markets, and decimate individual retirement accounts, one vulnerability is becoming clear: the MAGA coalition is not united, and contains exploitable fault lines.
Voices as diverse as Mike Pence and Elon Musk have expressed concerns about the tariffs, their scope, and their potential effects. Pundit Ben Shapiro said the tariffs were imposed “unilaterally” by Trump, and “probably unconstitutional.” Pence described them as “the largest peacetime tax hike in U.S. history,” and Musk criticized White House advisor Peter Navarro, the architect of the tariffs, saying “he ain't built shit.” This is hardly a united front, and creates opportunities for Democrats to identify and exploit differences between factions.
After years of vague hand-waving and generalized opposition to Joe Biden, it's clear there is no one actual single strategy being followed by Republicans. Partisans who imagined they were all on the same page are realizing they were suffering from a shared hallucination. As futures markets nervously await signals about what's coming next, here's some of what else we're tracking as this unfolds.
1: There is no plan.
It's become clear that Republicans are not following any one single plan, but instead are executing on multiple ideas that are being thrust into Trump's orbit by his various advisors — many of whom come from different interest networks. Peter Navarro seems to be the author of the tariff debacle, which was also backed by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Navarro cited an “expert” by the name of “Ron Vara” in his writeup for why tariffs were a good idea. But Ron Vara was a made-up persona, an anagram for “Navarro.” The tariff calculations were also bungled and pulled out of thin air. Trump apparently did not consult Musk about the tariffs, which pose substantial risks for Tesla. The only apparent “plan” is chaos, and iterative, tactical reaction to it.
2: Chaos is useful.
While Trump's circle might argue over the order and priority of operations, the chaos unlocked by the tariffs is broadly useful for enacting various agendas favored by different MAGA factions. There is something for everyone: Ron Paul libertarian types get a chance to attack the dollar and create opportunities for gold and cryptocurrencies. Aleksandr Dugin and Vladimir Putin will enjoy the benefits of American economic suicide. Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and other Silicon Valley ideologues will use the opportunity to try to reshape our monetary system. The CCP now has an opening to further isolate Taiwan. In short, it's a good time to be an accelerationist or a disaster capitalist. These are weeks where decades happen.
3: X-Date is coming — as soon as next month.
If you liked “Liberation Day,” you'll love “X-Date,” coming as soon as May 2025. The Congressional Budget Office has warned that the X-Date, the date on which the United States will officially default on its debt, will likely come sometime between August and September. But they also warned that it could arrive as soon as May, depending on tax revenues realized around tax day. With many Americans weighing the practical and moral implications of paying federal taxes this year, there is significant uncertainty around the actual revenue that will be collected. But whether X-Date comes in May or September, combining the current tariffs with US debt default will be an extinction level event for the US economy, with massive global repercussions for the dollar, creating more of the chaos that will help Russia, China, and their allies reshape the global order.
4: This is bigger than ‘greed’ or ‘profits.’
Lawmakers and pundits are suffering from a failure of imagination. Musk and friends aren't trying to gut social security so they can ‘steal it’ or accrue profits within the context of the current system. They're trying to blow up the current systems and replace them with ones they create in their own image. The goal is to terminate the United States. It's essential that we stop thinking in terms of ‘left’ and ‘right’ and in the context of our current institutions. If they win, they will try to create a context in which they have maximum advantage and in which everyone else is subservient. Discount this risk at our collective peril.
5: The Dollar and the Federal Reserve are primary targets.
The MAGA coalition can't agree on much in reality, but there is one thing that most of them agree on: the Dollar, fiat currency, and the Federal Reserve have got to go. Putin, Dugin, and BRICS currency architect Sergey Glazyev agree, as do Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and Jack Dorsey. Trump antagonist Thomas Massie (R-Kent.) has sponsored bills to terminate the Federal Reserve in both 2024 and 2025. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) was the principal champion of the recently announced Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Some have mistakenly reduced this fetish to “replacing the dollar with crypto,” but that's not correct — the broader desire shared by Russia, China, and the tech world is to see the dollar replaced with various other interchangeable assets including asset-backed BRICS currency as well as other crypto assets like XRP and Tether. The tariff chaos and potential US debt default serve as accelerants for harming the dollar's status.
6: Civil unrest is next.
Lawrence Summers told ABC today that the current tariffs create a scenario comparable to one in which gasoline cost $6 or $7 per gallon, a level at which many believe would cause Americans to riot in the streets. Couple that with extreme uncertainty about retirement accounts and there's really no telling when or how popular anger may erupt. In January, Trump set a deadline of April 20 for his decision of whether to invoke the Insurrection Act. It's entirely plausible that in just two weeks, with a full on tariff and potential income tax revolt brewing, along with potential debt default coming as soon as May or June, we may see new constraints on civil liberties. Anyone who says they can predict how this will play out isn't telling the truth.
7: Musk will necessarily remain in power.
Chatter this week that Musk would ‘depart’ the administration and return his attention to his businesses appeared to be a public relations effort to stem the collapse in the Tesla share price. First, Musk's engagement as a special government employee was always necessarily limited to 130 days (to end between May and July, depending on if one counts weekends). So his ‘departure’ under the current scheme was known from day one. However, there is nothing to stop him from appointing proxies loyal to him, and to continue running a shadow regime. And he will be easily able to suck down all the data he's trying to steal. Additionally, there is no reason to expect his relationship with Trump to be curtailed, and indeed we should have every expectation of seeing him continue to appear with and advise the President. If Musk has learned one thing, it's that Trump acts on advice from whoever he last has spoken to, and it's unwise to let him out of your sight, much less your direct orbit. Musk has more than anyone to lose. It is in his best interest to keep Trump on a short leash.
8: Cultivate and expand fractures in the MAGA coalition.
MAGA is not of one mind about tariffs, and we have a rare opportunity to map the fault lines. We already know it is an odd mix of libertarians, institutionalists, incrementalists, revolutionaries, reactionaries, Christian nationalists, Christian reconstructionists, Russia shills, conspiracy theorists, tech bros, business magnates, white supremacists, and Nazis. But we'll get a chance to see these fault lines expand further. Use this opportunity to expose and heighten the discord between these groups. They only got together because MAGA was vague and anodyne enough to create a loose federation. But now that they're committing outright acts of self harm, some are understandably objecting. Take note, and pick at the fissures.
Now that it's become clear that this administration is operating in an improvisational style — reacting tactically to each successive mess it unleashes — we may be better positioned to counter it. Those who oppose this administration (whether Republican, Independent, or Democrat) should take care not to assume they are especially coordinated or have one clear, specific agenda. This is jazz, it's improvisational in nature, and it's awful. Get up in their faces and slow them down. Make them react. Rob them of the agency they are using to destroy our government and the global economy.
The recent protests are a good first step, but keep up the assault by helping to shape public opinion in ways that break through to politicians and mainstream media. Don't let them get away with oversimplifications and ignoring deeper geopolitical motivations. We're on the cusp of breaking through, and once we do, the tide can easily change. ■
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